The Wall Street Journal
written by Margaret Coker
Thursday July 12, 2012
U.S.-Educated Economist's Alliance Takes Strong Lead; Islamist Party Lost Early Momentum as Voters Questioned Loyalties.
TRIPOLI—An alliance of parties led by a U.S.-educated economist is handily leading Libya's legislative elections, according to unofficial results released Thursday, promising that liberal lawmakers will shape the country's next government and the continuing regional debate about the role of Islam in politics.
With 98% of the votes counted in most major population centers after this weekend's vote, Mahmoud Jibril's National Forces Alliance—a group of some 60 parties that emphasize pairing Western legal and democratic traditions with Islamic law—leads its Islamist rivals by a wide margin.
In central Tripoli, the Alliance gained roughly 46,000 votes to 4,774 votes for the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated party, Justice and Development. In the conservative northern Tripoli suburb of Tajoura, the alliance won about 78,000 votes, to Justice's 12,000. Early results from many other heavily populated districts show the Alliance is ahead of the Islamist party, its closest rival, as well as the many other parties in each race.
Libya's first election in more than half a century contrasts starkly with those in Egypt and Tunisia, where well-organized Islamic groups have come to dominate the political landscape. It helps tamp fears voiced last year in Western capitals that Libya's disparate groups of well-armed religious militias might seize control following Moammar Gadhafi's overthrow.
It also reveals advantages that the oil-rich North African country may have in charting its post-authoritarian economic future, in comparison to its Arab Spring neighbors. Unlike Egypt, where deep divides between old regime forces and new Islamic leaders have stalled the possibility for major changes, the Alliance's apparently strong popular mandate should help the new government pass major infrastructure, development and institutional reform programs, as well as tackle sensitive issues such as judicial reform and social reconciliation. The new Congress will help draft a constitution, giving the nation of six million people a blueprint from which to build a new nation. It will also select an interim prime minister and cabinet, and have authority over the country's oil wealth, infrastructure, foreign policy and security until the constitution is approved in a national referendum.
Several religious, rural and professional Libyans alike said in interviews they didn't vote for religious parties because they felt the groups supported a more aggressive religious tradition than normally practiced in Libya. These people said they also distrusted the parties' perceived ties to Egypt, Turkey and Qatar.
"We don't like extremists. We are all Muslims in Libya, so why do we need a party of Muslims that thinks they are better than us?" said Karima Al-Freya'a, a 50-year-old mother of four who wears a flowing black abaya and head scarf.
Libya's Islamists say they did a poor job sizing up the public mood and selling their platform to the country. "Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia. Islamist here is a bad word," said Emmohamed Ghula, spokesman for Al Watan, the party founded by former Afghan jihadist Abdelhakim Belhaj. "The people perceive it as something suspicious."
Mr. Jibril's coalition is unlikely to be able to form a government on its own, because of how the 200 seats in Libya's new National Congress are allocated. Only 80 seats are reserved for political groups. The other 120 are reserved for individual races.
With about one-third of the individual tallies counted, candidates with strong regional ties, instead of religious affiliations, are also in the lead. That suggests a wide crop of candidates that the Alliance can invite into a grand ruling coalition, several of these independent front-runners said.
Official results aren't expected for several more days, after votes for all races are tallied. Justice party chairman Mohammed Sawan hasn't yet conceded defeat. Still, the NFA has already started coalition discussions among smaller parties and independent candidates, according to Faizal Krekshi, Mr. Jibril's second-in-command in the Alliance.
The momentum toward Mr. Jibril has been strong enough that the Islamist Watan party has told Justice officials that they won't join them in a likely opposition congressional bloc, wary of being associated with a movement that suffered such a resounding rebuke at the polls, according to Mr. Ghula.
The results so far appear to confirm that Mr. Jibril and his coalition outmaneuvered the country's well-organized and funded Islamists. As recently as last year, Mr. Jibril, a 60-year-old economist, was struggling for political relevance. Many observers were predicting a Muslim Brotherhood landslide, as in Egypt's parliamentary elections.
Mr. Jibril's allies say his growing skills in the art of politics—including his ability to hold together the unwieldy coalition of dozens of new parties and strong personalities during a somewhat rocky campaign—bodes well for what is expected to be a rough-and-tumble discussion to form a governing coalition.
Mr. Jibril holds an economics doctorate from the University of Pittsburgh. He was close to Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, seen as the reform-minded heir apparent to Libya's strongman leader, when the country's uprising started early last year. One of the first officials to defect, Mr. Jibril became an international face of the revolution, and, later, the country's first post-Gadhafi interim prime minister. But he resigned last fall amid heavy criticism at home about his perceived lack of leadership skills and an inability to fix the security and economic challenges facing the country.
At the time, Islamist factions had seized political momentum. Three factions—including the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and groups led by two former Libyan jihadi fighters—had unified under the banner of Watan, or the Nation Party, a name chosen in part to de-emphasize the group's religious affiliations.
But by spring, the Islamists' front was in disarray. The Muslim Brotherhood faction and a second group broke away amid squabbles over leadership positions, Mr. Ghula said.
Meanwhile, Mr. Jibril was addressing what his friends and political allies saw as a severe liability—his stiff public speaking style in Arabic and the perception that he had difficulty connecting with the Libyan street. These feelings were magnified last year during his frequent trips abroad during the Libyan revolution, when much of the country was suffering electricity and water shortages and wereunder bombardment by pro-Gadhafi forces.
Early this year, he embarked on a multicity, cross-country tour, scheduling face time with village elders and prominent local businessmen, listening to their regional concerns and explaining in person his economic program.
In February, he announced the creation of the National Forces Alliance, a grouping of 60 small parties and dozens of civil-society organizations. They were united by their rejection of the aggressive religious identity and social priorities of the Muslim Brothers, and their support of political decentralization and infrastructure development as the root of economy recovery.
By the start of the campaign season, the Alliance had registered in 70 of the country's 72 races for party lists. An additional 100 candidates sympathetic to the coalition registered for races for individual seats. Justice and Development registered slightly higher numbers, according to officials in that party.
That gave Alliance and Justice by far the largest national reach. However, nearly 4,000 people had registered to run in the election overall, including about 300 new parties whose names sounded vaguely similar and whose platforms were hazy at best. Alliance campaign strategists decided to emphasize Mr. Jibril as a recognizable name and face for Libyans inundated with political choices.
The branding campaign received a boost from sympathetic local media, including Al Assima TV, a satellite channel started during the revolution by a well-known businessman who had defected to the rebel forces.
Nabil Shabani, the head of the station and a former advertising executive, sent reporters to cover Mr. Jibril's town-hall style meetings through the spring, showing him in relaxed and informal settings with influential Libyans. He also actively helped create Alliance television ads. "There are only a few of us advertising professionals in Libya. The Alliance ad team was unorganized," said Mr. Shabani. "I made suggestions to make them more professional."
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