April 30, 2009

Unemployment Claims RISE To 6.271 MILLION, Another Record Level And The 15th Straight Increase! And The Gov't Wants Us To Believe Everything Is GREAT?

Jobless Claims Report
Thursday April 30, 2009


A huge jump in continuing claims headlines a mostly negative jobless claims report. Continuing claims in the April 18 week jumped 133,000 to 6.271 million, another record level and the 15th straight increase. A month-to-month comparison, useful for a gauge on the April employment report, shows significant deterioration, up 704,000 from 5.567 million at mid-March.

Now the good news. Initial claims appear to have peaked in March, pointing to similar relief ahead for continuing claims. Initial claims totaled a lower-than-expected 631,000 in the April 25 week with the four-week average at 637,250, well down from a peak near 660,000 at the beginning of the month.

The Labor Department said there are no special factors distorting the data and that the contraction is evenly distributed across jurisdictions. There was no significant reaction to today's 8:30 headlines but today's claims report does point to deeper lows in next week's employment report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Initial jobless claims jumped 27,000 in the April 18 week to a slightly higher-than-expected level of 640,000. While this boost is not good, the real trouble was with a surge in continuing claims, which spiked 93,000 to a record 6.137 million (data for the April 11 week). Continuing claims have set 12 straight weekly records, reflecting the mounting number of unemployed.

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