January 4, 2012

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses, 2012 Results

UPDATE 1/4/12 at 3:09pm: I just went back to wikipedia to check on the projected delegate vote count and sure enough what I shared with you at 1am has now been changed by "whomever" using the Associated Press analysis conveniently put out today. You don't think we know what you're up to? Someone went in and removed the "Note" that I shared with you at the bottom of this page that I took from wikipedia at 1am this morning and replaced it with the following:

Selection of delegates

The Iowa Republican caucus is the first part in a "multi-step process" to elect the state's 25 pledged delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention. The January 3 caucuses ("precinct caucuses") elects delegates to county conventions. These county conventions, in turn, elect delegates to the four congressional-district conventions on March 10, who elect three national delegates each. Each congressional-district conventions also appoint two members to a "slate committee" which chooses 13 additional delegates. These 13 delegates are voted on at the Republican Party of Iowa state convention on June 18. Notably, even the 25 pledged delegates are not bound to support any candidate at the national convention. Unlike the majority of states, Iowa RNC delegates are free to vote for any candidate for president or vice president.

According to the Associated Press, the Iowa Republican system "puts a premium on getting the most votes in individual congressional districts. If a candidate's supporters can control a congressional district convention, they can choose national delegates and slate committee members who support their candidate." A January 4 AP analysis projected that Romney and Santorum, who each won two of Iowa's congressional districts, would win 13 and 12 delegates, respectively, assuming there are no changes in their support as the campaign continues. Although Paul ran a close third in the voting, he "was shut out of delegates because he didn't win any of Iowa's four congressional districts."

**************************************************

I wanted to get more clarity about the delegate selection because I felt there was something fishy about the dramatic delegate vote projection change in Iowa. The Daily Paul wrote a piece this afternoon titled, "Clearing up the Iowa Delegate Misconception". I have taken the following snipit from the article:

"When people say "delegates" this is what we are ACTUALLY talking about. At the state level we decide who gets to go to the RNC. We most likely won't get all the delegates, but I predict we will get way more than any other candidate. It will be MONTHS before we find any of this other stuff out, however because the county delegate meeting is in March.

So in summary: No delegates to the RNC were decided last night. Only delegates at the precinct level volunteered to work their way up the food chain to try go to the RNC, or to try get their buddies to go to the RNC. It is wedding caked shaped where the delegate number gets smaller and smaller until only the RNC delegates remain."

[source: wikipedia]

There are 614,913 registered Republicans as of January 3, 2012.

100% of the vote reported:
Turnout was 19.9% of the registered voters.

Iowa Republican caucuses, January 3, 2012.

1. Mitt Romney 30,015 votes; 24.6%; 7 delegates votes projected
2. Rick Santorum 30,007 votes; 24.5%; 7 delegates votes projected
3. Ron Paul 26,219 votes 21.4%; 7 delegates votes projected
4. Newt Gingrich 16,251 votes; 13.3%; 2 delegates votes projected
5. Rick Perry 12,604 votes; 10.3%; 2 delegates votes projected
6. Michele Bachmann 6,073 votes; 5.0%; 0 delegates votes projected
7. Jon Huntsman 745 votes; 0.6%; 0 delegates votes projected
8. No Preference 135 votes; 0.1%; 0 delegates votes projected
9. Other 117 votes; 0.1%; 0 delegates votes projected
10. Herman Cain 58 votes; 0.1%; 0 delegates votes projected
11. Buddy Roemer 31 votes; 0.0%; 0 delegates votes projected

Totals 122,255 votes; 100.0%; 25 delegates votes from Iowa

Note: Iowa's delegates are not directly chosen by the caucuses, but by district and state conventions which occur later in the cycle. The shown delegate counts are projections provided by the media. 25 delegates are chosen by the convention, and 3 are unpledged RNC delegates for a total of 28.

The 2012 Republican presidential primaries are the selection processes in which voters of the Republican Party will choose their nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 presidential election.

There are 2,286 delegates. It takes 1,144 delegate votes to win.

No comments: